The latest semi-annual industry survey of the German Composites Association has come out with positive evaluation.
The German Composites Association, an industry association with the goal of promoting the development of the German composite industry, has recently published the results of its 16th composite market survey, identifying the latest Key Performance Indicators (KPis) for the fiber-reinforced plastics (FRP) market.
The survey covered all the member companies of the three major organizations in the composite materials industry, namely the German Reinforced Plastics Association AVK, Leichtbau BW, Lightweight Manufacturing Bureau of Baden-Wurttemberg, and the Hybrid Lightweight Technical Working Group of the German Plastics and Rubber Machinery Association VDMA. As in the past, to ensure the survey runs smoothly, the questions for the semi-annual survey remain unchanged. The data obtained in the survey are primarily qualitative and related to current and future market developments.
The evaluation of the current business situation is more positive.
The latest results show a marked improvement, following the previous survey's highly negative assessment of the current business situation. All three regions surveyed (global, European and German) showed highly positive trends. In the first half of 2020, an average of 85% of respondents described the current business situation as negative or very negative, while in the latest survey, an average of 50% described the current situation as fairly or very positive (see Figure 1)
Figure 1: Overall business situation of the industry
Moreover, this more optimistic assessment applies not only to the overall state of business, but also to the respondents' own businesses (see Figure 2)
Figure 2: The business condition of the enterprise itself
Despite the continued spread of COVID-19 and the challenges it faces, the mood of respondents has improved significantly. The deciding factor may be what happens in the second half of 2020, when the downturn is smaller than originally feared. Trade and industry are affected to very different degrees by restrictions. Construction, which is important to the composite industry, has not been negatively affected so far. Transportation is also starting to recover in many areas, including cars and transportation. Although the structural transformation is far from complete, the industry has begun to face up to the challenges, and even from the outside, it seems that the only industry that cannot recover to its former level is the aviation industry. Another reason may also be the apparent loosening of international trade relations in many places.
Positive Future Expectations
When asked about expectations for future business developments, there was a continued positive picture. For all three regions surveyed, respondents' expectations of future business conditions were much more positive, reaching the highest level since these surveys began (see Figure 3)
Figure 3: An assessment of the overall future performance of the business
There are different expectations for the application industry
Expectations for certain application industries vary widely. First, expectations have fallen sharply in the automotive, aerospace and wind industries (see chart 4).However, it is worth noting that the number of respondents expecting a decline is much smaller than last time. In the last survey, 71 percent of respondents expected things to get worse for the airline industry; now that number has dropped to "only" 46%. In the automotive sector, this figure has fallen from 45% (in the first half of 2020) to just 17%.
Figure 4: Assessment of the development of some application areas
GRP continues to be a growth driver
As in the past, the survey identified Germany, Europe and Asia as the regions that are expected to provide the most important growth stimulus for the composites industry. Expectations for Asia are likely to continue to rise, while those for Germany and Europe have fallen. On the material side, the German Composites Association reports seeing a paradigm shift under way. In the previous 13 surveys, respondents consistently identified carbon fiber composite CRP as the main growth stimulus for the composite sector, and now for the third consecutive survey, respondents mentioned glass fiber composite GRP as the most important material (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Growth drivers: materials
The composite index is now positive
The markedly more positive assessment in so many areas is not entirely surprising, given that there are some early signs of recovery in many places. The second half of 2020 generally showed more positive emotions. Still, the clear assessment of the current business situation and future prospects came as a surprise. The Composite Development Index turned positive in all areas and reached new heights, especially expectations for the future (see Figure 6).
Whether these high expectations can be realized remains to be seen, and there are still many uncertainties about future developments. The current focus remains on the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, which no one can realistically predict. The start of vaccination programmes and the apparent slowdown in outbreaks in many countries have prompted many in the market to be more optimistic about the future. In addition, numerous government-backed projects have been rolled out, and there has been a marked loosening of economic and political trade ties between the United States and China. In addition, economic tensions between Russia, the European Union and the United States appear to have eased, but action is still needed at the political level.
A major challenge in international trade, especially for the EU, remains Brexit, the full impact of which remains to be seen. In the automotive industry, many companies, especially German OEMs, are undergoing a business model transformation; Aviation industry as an important sector of the composite industry, no matter now or in the medium term, it seems unable to recover to the previous level; The construction industry, the largest market sector for composite materials, is less affected by the epidemic.
The composites market, like many other sectors, had to deal with a sharp decline last year. Still, the outlook is optimistic that in many application areas, the decline could be quickly alleviated.
----The above content is from “China International Composite Materials Industry Technology Exhibition”
Post time: Mar-23-2021